The long-held belief among Bitcoin enthusiasts that the cryptocurrency market is destined for a significant peak before the close of 2025 is facing increasing scrutiny. A growing number of prominent crypto analysts are challenging this widely held belief, asserting it rests on limited historical data and underestimates the profound influence of new institutional dynamics.
Challenging the Halving-Based Cycle Model
Central to this skepticism is the argument against over-reliance on Bitcoin’s halving cycles as the sole predictor of market behavior. Crypto analyst PlanC, for instance, highlights that with only three halving events in Bitcoin’s history, inferring future price action from such a limited data set is statistically unsound. He posits that novel factors, such as Bitcoin’s increasing integration into corporate balance sheets and multi-billion dollar inflows into U.S. spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), now exert a more dominant influence on market cycles than the traditional halving mechanism.
“Anyone who thinks Bitcoin has to peak in Q4 of this year does not understand statistics or probability. The halving is completely irrelevant at this point, and there is zero fundamental reason—other than a psychological, self-fulfilling prophecy—for the peak to occur in Q4…”
— PlanC (@TheRealPlanC) September 5, 2025
While many investors point to Bitcoin’s historically strong performance in the fourth quarter—with CoinGlass data indicating an average gain exceeding 85% since 2013—PlanC cautions against conflating correlation with causation. In his view, investor psychology, rather than fundamental market drivers, often sustains the expectation of an annual Q4 rally.
Divergent Expert Outlooks
Despite PlanC’s cautionary stance, the analytical community remains divided on Bitcoin’s immediate trajectory. Stephen McClurg of Canary Capital, for example, maintains that Bitcoin could still reach price targets between $140,000 and $150,000 before a potential reversal in 2026. Similarly, Matt Hougan from Bitwise suggests the current bull market has the momentum to extend well into 2026 and potentially beyond. In contrast, figures such as Arthur Hayes and Joe Burnett continue to project ambitious targets, forecasting Bitcoin prices as high as $250,000 by the end of the current year.
Evolving Market Dynamics and Future Uncertainty
The broader consensus emerging from these differing perspectives is that Bitcoin’s path forward may deviate significantly from the orderly patterns observed in previous cycles. The advent of sophisticated institutional participation—characterized by corporate treasuries holding Bitcoin and the proliferation of spot ETFs—introduces a layer of complexity and capital flow largely absent in earlier market phases. This evolution implies that forecasts anchored solely to historical cycles may prove increasingly unreliable, rendering end-of-year predictions more uncertain than ever.
Former Wall Street analyst turned crypto journalist, Marcus brings a decade of expertise in trading strategies, risk management, and quantitative research. He writes clear, actionable guides on technical indicators, portfolio diversification, and emerging DeFi projects.