BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom CIO Arthur Hayes has articulated a contrarian perspective on Bitcoin’s market dynamics, rejecting the widely accepted four-year cycle theory. Instead, Hayes asserts that macro liquidity, propelled by global central bank policies, is the fundamental force poised to drive the cryptocurrency past $200,000 by the end of this decade.
In a recent discussion with Kyle Chass, Hayes underscored the critical role of macroeconomic liquidity and monetary policy for digital assets. He contends that active money creation by institutions like the U.S. Federal Reserve, Treasury, and other national central banks will disproportionately benefit cryptocurrencies. He argues Bitcoin’s superior performance against traditional benchmarks like the S&P 500 indicates investors underestimate its growth potential.
Hayes’s long-term outlook is rooted in the belief that governments will continue monetary expansion. While acknowledging eventual risks, he views the current phase as conducive to asset appreciation, underpinning his bold Bitcoin forecasts.
Hayes is known for dynamic, sometimes shifting, predictions. He has notably projected Bitcoin to $1 million by 2028 (tied to President Donald Trump's policies, tariffs, and dollar issuance) and to $250,000 by 2025, foreseeing an "altseason" at $200,000 with Ethereum favored. He also disclosed a 20% allocation to gold, targeting $10,000-$20,000. Reflecting a responsive market view, he warned of a Bitcoin decline to $100,000 in August due to macro risks, leading him to sell over $13 million in cryptocurrency.
Despite dynamic adjustments to his market assessments, Arthur Hayes remains a prominent and influential voice, consistently shaping critical discussions about Bitcoin and digital assets.
